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采暖季結束,焦煤何去何從?


發布時間:2019-03-22   點擊次數:69
 
  隨著采暖季結束、天氣轉暖,黑色產業鏈終端需求逐漸啟動,但從目前的終端數據來看,需求明顯不及預期,現階段整個黑色產業鏈還未出現明顯的大幅提漲跡象。
  焦煤前期由于安全檢查和“兩會”的影響,部分地區煤礦還未完全復產,加上進口煤限制政策不放松,因此,年初至今,焦煤的供給一直處于偏緊狀態,隨著“兩會”的結束,煤礦復產逐漸增多,預計后期焦煤供給偏緊的狀態將有所緩解。
  產量大幅下滑,供給持續偏緊
  自2018年四季度開始,煤礦事故頻發,進入2019年后,國家對煤礦安全檢查政策明顯更為嚴格,多數煤礦春節假期偏長,加上“兩會”的影響,自2019年初至今,焦煤產量一直處于持續偏緊狀態。國家統計局數據顯示,2019年1-2月份,全國原煤產量為51367.1萬噸,累計同比下降1.5%。其中,1-2月份山西原煤產量為13465.9萬噸,累計同比增長6%;內蒙古原煤產量為14384.7萬噸,累計同比增長1.8%;陜西原煤出產量為7078萬噸,累計同比下降16.1%;山東原煤產量為1832.9萬噸,累計同比下降7.3%;河南原煤產量為1741.6萬噸,累計同比下降5.3%。由此可見,2019年原煤產量較去年同期大幅下降。另外,進口煤限制政策抑制不放松,外煤通關時間明顯加長,后期仍需關注進口煤政策變動。
  庫存持續下跌,需求較為疲軟
  前期供給的持續偏緊導致焦煤庫存持續下降,數據顯示,截至3月15日,100家獨立焦化廠煉焦煤總庫存為808.8萬噸,周環比下降4.8萬噸,連續六周下跌;100家樣本鋼廠煉焦煤總庫存為857.2萬噸,周環比增加16.7萬噸。盡管焦化廠的煉焦煤庫存持續下降,但跟前兩年相比,焦化廠的焦煤庫存仍處高位,而鋼廠的焦煤庫存相對于前兩年也處于高位。隨著“兩會”結束,各地區煤礦將逐步復產,產量增加,供給端趨緊狀態將有所緩解。但考慮到3月底之前,河北、山西部分地區焦企有限產行為,且黑色終端需求不是特別旺,因此預計短期內焦企對焦煤需求較為穩定,按需采購。
  本周全國焦煤市場整體趨穩,部分地區焦煤價格開始零星下調,降幅一般在30-80元/噸。受焦炭弱勢下行影響,焦化廠已經處于虧損邊緣,打壓焦煤價格是必然,現焦化廠已經開始刻意控制到貨量,部分地區焦煤價格開始零星下調,其中山西呂梁地區高硫主焦煤價格降80元/噸,臨汾地區前期價格偏高的主焦煤價格降20元/噸,運城地區瘦煤價格下調30-40元/噸,后期來看,配焦煤及高硫焦煤降價范圍有進一步擴大的可能,另外前期價格偏高的優質焦煤或有小跌預期,但整體來看,受制于供應端資源偏緊,焦煤價格不具備大幅下跌的基礎。
  綜合來說,隨著“兩會”的結束,后期國內焦煤產量或將逐漸釋放,但由于目前鋼廠和焦化廠的焦煤庫存未處于相對低位,加上河北、山西部分地區對焦企有環保限產行為,因此,在黑色終端需求沒有大幅度增長之前,焦煤需求不會大幅增長。另外,目前鋼廠利潤已處于盈虧邊緣,利潤的縮減已傳導至焦化廠,焦煤供給一旦寬松,焦化廠或將通過打壓焦煤價格來維持利潤。
  整體來看,受下游需求偏弱影響,后期配焦煤、高硫焦煤及前期價格偏高的優質焦煤均會面臨一定下行壓力。價格方面,預計下周山東地區氣精煤價格會降至1050元/噸,河北邯鄲地區主焦煤價格會穩定在1480元/噸左右,山西呂梁地區低硫主焦煤會穩定在1680元/噸左右。

 

 
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